US-China Trade Relations: Tectonic Changes and Political Risk in the Global System – National Security, Industrial Policy, and Protectionism

Abstract

There has been a tectonic shift in the trade relationship between the United States (US) and China. This can be seen in the passage of new US legislation, recent US trade restrictions on exports and investment transactions with China, and worsening US relations with the World Trade Organization (WTO), particularly with its dispute resolution system. The Trump administration initiated a haphazard tariff and trade war with China, reversing decades of US trade policy pursuant to its long-standing stances of supporting free trade. To the dismay of many in the trade community within the US and globally, the trade actions by President Trump have been significantly extended and broadened by the Biden administration in its first two years, despite the expectation that it would reverse many of Trump’s policies. In this article, I present seven observations concerning President Trump’s and President Biden’s trade policies.